Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]

Will above 90000 jobs be added in September 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 13 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
> 30000	2026-10-02	0.0%	—	$960	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 60000	2026-10-02	0.0%	$1	$337	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 70000	2026-10-02	0.0%	$26	$472	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 100000	2026-10-02	0.0%	$2	$1.3K	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
-25000	2027-01-01	93.0%	—	$100	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 0	2027-01-01	83.0%	—	$170	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0`
> 10000	2027-01-01	85.0%	—	$1.5K	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 20000	2027-01-01	80.0%	—	$49	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 40000	2027-01-01	78.0%	—	$296	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 50000	2027-01-01	68.0%	—	$190	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 80000	2027-01-01	57.0%	$17	$24	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 90000	2027-01-01	51.0%	$5	$306	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`
> 125000	2027-01-01	39.0%	—	$1.9K	A	`KXPAYROLLS-2…000`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	BLS	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 13 markets · share this text

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗

sources (2) · single authority

BLS venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report from rules text

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will above 30000 jobs be added in September 2026?	kalshi	`2026-10-02`	`0%`
NO	Will above 60000 jobs be added in September 2026?	kalshi	`2026-10-02`	`0%`
NO	Will above 70000 jobs be added in September 2026?	kalshi	`2026-10-02`	`0%`
NO	Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?	kalshi	`2026-10-02`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-10-02T07:48:52+00:00 volume-spike
Buyers back 30K+ September payrolls at 76% 76% · $18K 24h
- 76% price reflects meaningful but not overwhelming confidence that payrolls exceed the 30K threshold in September.
- 61% of all-time volume arrived in a single session, the sharpest concentration of any contract in this batch.
- A 30K hurdle is low by historical standards, suggesting the volume reflects hedging against a near-recessionary miss rather than bullish positioning.
- Resolves on BLS nonfarm payrolls for September 2026.
2026-10-01T15:04:01+00:00 volume-spike
September jobs above 70K holds a clear majority price 67% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 67% chance September 2026 payrolls come in above 70,000, a majority lean but far from a lock.
- 24h volume of $15K is 66% of all-time, suggesting the contract is drawing concentrated late-stage positioning.
- Timing on Oct 1 points directly to imminent September jobs data; this is classic pre-release positioning.
- Resolves on the September employment report; a miss below 70K would be a sharp repricing event.
2026-10-01T07:48:14+00:00 volume-spike
Fresh volume backs September payrolls clearing 70K jobs 66% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices September 2026 nonfarm payrolls above 70K at 66%, a clear lean toward a solid print.
- 68% of all-time contract volume ($15K of $22K lifetime) arrived in 24h ahead of the data release.
- Pre-release positioning surge is classic, ADP, jobless claims, or ISM data likely moved the needle.
- Resolves on the official BLS September 2026 employment report, due imminently.
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K Kalshi ladder
- Ladder pins September payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 51% above 90K, only 45% above 100K, 28% above 125K.
- ADP's 90K private-sector print and Wall Street's 84K consensus both sit squarely in the ladder's modal band, markets broadly consistent with incoming data.
- Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 9,950x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention ahead of the Friday BLS print.
- The sharp drop from 65% above 80K to 51% above 90K shows the market sees meaningful downside tail risk around the consensus estimate.
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
September private payrolls odds slip around the 90K-100K range Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder implies 90K-100K for September jobs added: 57% above 90K, dropping to 47% above 100K.
- ADP's 90,000 print lands squarely in the market's modal range, making the news broadly consistent with prevailing odds.
- The sharp drop from 57% to 31% between the 90K and 125K strikes signals little confidence in an upside surprise from Friday's official nonfarm payroll report.
- The 96% probability above -25K confirms no meaningful recession-level job-loss risk is priced; the debate is purely about the upside.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26sep`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26sep")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "question": "Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "employment",
    "us-labor-market",
    "september-2026",
    "economic-data",
    "monthly-jobs"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 13,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 7628,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "BLS",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "BLS",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →