Will the US create more than 200,000 jobs in September 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-02 (112D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2026-10-02 | 79.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-10-02 | 83.0% | — | $170 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2026-10-02 | 74.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2026-10-02 | 69.0% | — | $37 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2026-10-02 | 66.0% | — | $418 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2026-10-02 | 78.0% | $295 | $444 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-10-02 | 68.0% | — | $190 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-10-02 | 61.0% | — | $236 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-10-02 | 68.0% | — | $306 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2026-10-02 | 41.0% | — | $5 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2026-10-02 | 43.0% | $15 | $160 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2026-10-02 | 32.0% | — | $790 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2026-10-02 | 22.0% | — | $932 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26sep.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
"question": "Will the US create more than 200,000 jobs in September 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"employment",
"us-labor-market",
"september-2026",
"economic-data",
"monthly-jobs"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5093,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}