The rate of core PCE inflation in June 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-06 (14D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2026-08-06 | 98.0% | $0 | $1.3K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-08-06 | 72.0% | $277 | $8.3K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-08-06 | 4.0% | $26 | $2.2K | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-08-06 | 2.0% | — | $551 | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-08-06 | 2.0% | — | $55 | A | KXPCECORE-26…0.4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Economic Analysis source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpcecore-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpcecore-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpcecore-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GSFKDKFXG2",
"slug": "kxpcecore-26jun",
"question": "The rate of core PCE inflation in June 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-pce",
"inflation",
"us-economics",
"2026",
"monthly-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12375,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}