Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]

kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
George Bush	2026-08-01	99.0%	—	$5.0K	B	`KXPERSONPUBL…BUS`
Bill Clinton	2026-08-01	98.0%	—	$8.6K	B	`KXPERSONPUBL…CLI`
Joe Biden	2026-08-01	96.0%	—	$5.5K	B	`KXPERSONPUBL…BID`
Hillary Clinton	2026-08-01	92.0%	—	$6.8K	B	`KXPERSONPUBL…CLI`
Barack Obama	2026-08-01	46.0%	$67	$1.0K	B	`KXPERSONPUBL…OBA`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If Barack Obama has been seen in public starting 10:00 AM Jul 1, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. All of the following criteria must be met: Physical Presence: Barack Obama is physically present (not virtual/holographic) and alive Consciousness: Barack Obama appears conscious and aware (not unconscious, comatose, or incapacitated) Public Setting: The sighting occurs in one of the following: A public space accessible to the general public (streets, parks, shops, restaurants) A ticketed public event (concerts, sports events, conferences) An official public appearance (government events, ceremonies, press conferences) A semi-public venue where public access is normal (hotels, airports, train stations) The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Pre-recorded or archival footage presented as current Private events closed to the general public (private parties, closed meetings) Medical facilities, private residences, or restricted areas Virtual appearances (video calls, holograms, avatars) Body doubles or impersonators Corpses, funeral viewings, or posthumous footage Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: Barack Obama attends a movie premiere and is photographed on the red carpet by multiple Source Agencies Barack Obama gives a live press conference covered by news media Barack Obama attends a sporting event and is shown on the stadium's video screens Examples that would NOT resolve to Yes: Pre-recorded video message Private party footage leaked online Someone claiming to be Barack Obama but without Source Agency confirmation Barack Obama appearing via video link from home

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

sources (22) · single authority

ABC venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
BBC venue-listed
The Guardian venue-listed
official social media accounts verified by the platforms venue-listed
government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears source of record venue-listed
person or their official representatives venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Sky News venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
PENDING	Will Hillary Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-20`	`92%`
YES	Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-13`	`98%`
YES	Will George Bush be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-08`	`99%`
YES	Will Joe Biden be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-07`	`96%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpersonpublic-26aug01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpersonpublic-26aug01`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxpersonpublic-26aug01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NYJBY61QL1",
  "slug": "kxpersonpublic-26aug01",
  "question": "Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "public-appearance",
    "political-figure",
    "2026",
    "observational-resolution",
    "july-2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 26903,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 74,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Guardian",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official social media accounts verified by the platforms",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "person or their official representatives",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sky News",
      "url": "https://news.sky.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →