Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]
Will Barack Obama be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 2026-07-07 | 100.0% | — | $5.5K | B | KXPERSONPUBL…BID | ||
| George Bush | 2026-07-07 | 100.0% | — | $5.0K | B | KXPERSONPUBL…BUS | ||
| Bill Clinton | 2026-07-13 | 100.0% | — | $8.6K | B | KXPERSONPUBL…CLI | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 2026-07-20 | 100.0% | — | $6.8K | B | KXPERSONPUBL…CLI | ||
| Barack Obama | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $67 | $1.0K | B | KXPERSONPUBL…OBA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Barack Obama has been seen in public starting 10:00 AM Jul 1, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All of the following criteria must be met:
Physical Presence: Barack Obama is physically present (not virtual/holographic) and alive
Consciousness: Barack Obama appears conscious and aware (not unconscious, comatose, or incapacitated)
Public Setting: The sighting occurs in one of the following:
A public space accessible to the general public (streets, parks, shops, restaurants)
A ticketed public event (concerts, sports events, conferences)
An official public appearance (government events, ceremonies, press conferences)
A semi-public venue where public access is normal (hotels, airports, train stations)
The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
Pre-recorded or archival footage presented as current
Private events closed to the general public (private parties, closed meetings)
Medical facilities, private residences, or restricted areas
Virtual appearances (video calls, holograms, avatars)
Body doubles or impersonators
Corpses, funeral viewings, or posthumous footage
Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
Barack Obama attends a movie premiere and is photographed on the red carpet by multiple Source Agencies
Barack Obama gives a live press conference covered by news media
Barack Obama attends a sporting event and is shown on the stadium's video screens
Examples that would NOT resolve to Yes:
Pre-recorded video message
Private party footage leaked online
Someone claiming to be Barack Obama but without Source Agency confirmation
Barack Obama appearing via video link from home
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (22) · single authority
ABC venue-listed NBC venue-listed BBC venue-listed The Guardian venue-listed official social media accounts verified by the platforms venue-listed government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears committed source person or their official representatives venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Information venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Fox News venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Axios venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed Semafor venue-listed CNN venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Politico venue-listed Sky News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Barack Obama be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
| YES | Will Hillary Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 100% |
| YES | Will George Bush be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 100% |
| YES | Will Joe Biden be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpersonpublic-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpersonpublic-26aug01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpersonpublic-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NYJBY61QL1",
"slug": "kxpersonpublic-26aug01",
"question": "Will Bill Clinton be seen in public before Aug 1, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"public-appearance",
"political-figure",
"2026",
"observational-resolution",
"july-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26903,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts verified by the platforms",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "government agencies of the jurisdiction where person resides or appears",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "person or their official representatives",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Sky News",
"url": "https://news.sky.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}