Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%? [ resolved 2026-07-03 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3% | 2026-07-03 | 100.0% | $8 | $13K | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P1 | ||
| > 12% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $35 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…P56 | ||
| Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $158 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…P10 | ||
| Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | $0 | $47 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P7 | ||
| Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $169 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P4 | ||
| Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | $41 | $607 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P1 | ||
| Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $199 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P4 | ||
| Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $20 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…-P7 | ||
| Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $9 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…P10 | ||
| > 12% | 2026-07-03 | 0.0% | — | $20 | C | KXPERUPRESMO…P56 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Keiko Fujimori minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Keiko Fujimori if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Keiko Fujimori loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori wins, or the electoral votes received by Keiko Fujimori minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Keiko Fujimori does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Keiko Fujimori runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Keiko Fujimori will be summed.
If Keiko Fujimori wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Keiko Fujimori loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Keiko Fujimori ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Keiko Fujimori is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxperupresmov-26jun07/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxperupresmov-26jun07 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxperupresmov-26jun07") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RKB4074MH9",
"slug": "kxperupresmov-26jun07",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"peru-politics",
"presidential-runoff",
"electoral-margin",
"keiko-fujimori",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13864,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}