Will Pope Leo visit any countries before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Argentina before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 80.0% | $5 | $19K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…ARG | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 79.0% | $2 | $8.6K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…PER | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 70.0% | $4 | $17K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…URU | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…BRA | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | — | $6.0K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…MEX | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $585 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…POR | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $25 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…PHI | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $246 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…SUD | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $367 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…ISR | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $22 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…JOR | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $4.8K | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…USA | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $565 | A | KXPOPEVISIT-…UKR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Guardian | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Peru before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpopevisit-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpopevisit-27jan01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpopevisit-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-87B87RB6N9",
"slug": "kxpopevisit-27jan01",
"question": "Will Pope Leo visit any countries before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"papal-travel",
"geopolitics",
"international-relations",
"religious-leadership",
"pope-leo",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 58252,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Guardian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}