Which counties will Tom Steyer win in the California governor primary? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $8 | $6.6K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…FRA | ||
| Marin | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $2 | $1.9K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…ARI | ||
| Alameda | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | — | $2.6K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…LAM | ||
| Santa Cruz | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…CRU | ||
| Santa Barbara | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $701 | $894 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…BAR | ||
| San Mateo | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $127 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…MAT | ||
| Santa Clara | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $68 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…CLA | ||
| Contra Costa | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $53 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…COS | ||
| Sonoma | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $0 | $6 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…ONO | ||
| Napa | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $19 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…APA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | state board of elections or canvassing board | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tom Steyer wins the first round of the 2026 California gubernatorial election in San Francisco County, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Win" means receiving a plurality of votes in the the June primary.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "state board of elections or canvassing board" sources (1) · single authority
state board of elections or canvassing board committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tom Steyer win Santa Clara County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer win Contra Costa County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer win Sonoma County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer win Napa County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Steyer win San Mateo County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will Tom Steyer win Santa Barbara County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Tom Steyer win Santa Cruz County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Tom Steyer win Alameda County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Tom Steyer win Marin County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Tom Steyer win San Francisco County? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarycounty-cagovprimary1st26jun021sttste/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarycounty-cagovprimary1st26jun021sttste |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarycounty-cagovprimary1st26jun021sttste") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K77JD368X4",
"slug": "kxprimarycounty-cagovprimary1st26jun021sttste",
"question": "Which counties will Tom Steyer win in the California governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"2027-election",
"governor-primary",
"county-level",
"tom-steyer"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14497,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}