Will Abdul El-Sayed win Michigan counties in the Democratic Senate primary? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalamazoo | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…KAL | ||
| Grand Traverse | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $46 | $3.2K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…GRA | ||
| Washtenaw | 2027-01-01 | 97.0% | — | $867 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…WAS | ||
| Kent | 2027-01-01 | 95.0% | — | $834 | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…KEN | ||
| Wayne | 2027-01-01 | 93.0% | $1.1K | $9.9K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…WAY | ||
| Macomb | 2027-01-01 | 90.0% | $793 | $6.4K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…MAC | ||
| Genesee | 2027-01-01 | 89.0% | $2.1K | $7.8K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…GEN | ||
| Oakland | 2027-01-01 | 32.0% | $322 | $2.3K | A | KXPRIMARYCOU…OAK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | state board of elections or canvassing board | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary in Macomb County, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "state board of elections or canvassing board" sources (1) · single authority
- state board of elections or canvassing board source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarycounty-senatemid26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarycounty-senatemid26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarycounty-senatemid26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K2L1MPC6Z5",
"slug": "kxprimarycounty-senatemid26",
"question": "Will Abdul El-Sayed win Michigan counties in the Democratic Senate primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"county-level-outcomes",
"abdul-el-sayed",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35459,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}