Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 5%? [ resolves 2027-08-18 (379D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5% | 2027-08-18 | 89.0% | $3.9K | $3.9K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P52 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2027-08-18 | 85.0% | $871 | $871 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P55 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2027-08-18 | 83.0% | $35 | $35 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| ≥ 20% | 2027-08-18 | 72.0% | $796 | $796 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P60 | ||
| ≥ 25% | 2027-08-18 | 77.0% | $459 | $459 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P62 | ||
| ≥ 30% | 2027-08-18 | 62.0% | $32 | $93 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P65 | ||
| ≥ 35% | 2027-08-18 | 42.0% | $42 | $210 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P67 | ||
| ≥ 40% | 2027-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P70 | ||
| ≥ 45% | 2027-08-18 | 22.0% | — | $66 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P72 | ||
| ≥ 50% | 2027-08-18 | 10.0% | — | $0 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P75 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):
**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory is the vote share received by Jared Moskowitz minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Jared Moskowitz if Jared Moskowitz wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Jared Moskowitz loses. If Jared Moskowitz wins, the margin will be positive; if Jared Moskowitz loses, the margin will be negative; if Jared Moskowitz ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Jared Moskowitz runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-flprimary25d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-flprimary25d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-flprimary25d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-47SC7ZB7M9",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-flprimary25d26",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 5%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"2027-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6439,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}