Will the Colorado Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-06-30 (342D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Weiser in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-06-30 | 99.0% | — | $14K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $15 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $41 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $16 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $12 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $13 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| > 15% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $11 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| Phil Weiser in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $16 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Phil Weiser in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $86 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Phil Weiser in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $30 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Phil Weiser in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $103 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| > 15% | 2027-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $212 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Michael Bennet in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Michael Bennet minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Michael Bennet if Michael Bennet wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Michael Bennet loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Michael Bennet minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Michael Bennet if Michael Bennet wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Michael Bennet loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Michael Bennet minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Michael Bennet wins, or the electoral votes received by Michael Bennet minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Michael Bennet does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Michael Bennet runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Michael Bennet will be summed.
If Michael Bennet wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Michael Bennet loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Michael Bennet ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Michael Bennet is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-govconomd26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-govconomd26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-govconomd26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RXTWRF9G24",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-govconomd26",
"question": "Will the Colorado Democratic Governor primary margin of victory be greater than 10 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"colorado-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"2027-election",
"governor-race",
"margin-of-victory"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14951,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}