What will be the margin of victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? [ resolves 2027-08-04 (377D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 15% | 2027-08-04 | 19.0% | $6 | $11K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-04 | 16.0% | $2 | $1.4K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-04 | 16.0% | $5 | $1.9K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-04 | 12.0% | $6 | $1.4K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-04 | 12.0% | $5 | $946 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-08-04 | 10.0% | $50 | $1.3K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-08-04 | 8.0% | — | $709 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-04 | 8.0% | — | $395 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-04 | 8.0% | — | $258 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-04 | 7.0% | — | $259 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| > 0% | 2027-08-04 | 6.0% | — | $55 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-04 | 2.0% | — | $42 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| > 15% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | — | $1 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26",
"question": "What will be the margin of victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"senate-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19937,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}