What will be the margin of victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15%?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3% | 2026-08-25 | 100.0% | $2.0K | $4.4K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| > 15% | 2026-08-25 | 0.0% | $141K | $378K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-04 | 18.0% | $4.1K | $13K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-04 | 14.0% | $1.7K | $8.0K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-04 | 8.0% | $1.1K | $4.1K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-04 | 5.0% | $1.8K | $3.6K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3% | 2027-08-04 | 2.0% | $696 | $1.2K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P1 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 3% and 6% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | $50 | $203 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P4 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 6% and 9% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | $12 | $116 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | $3 | $48 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 12% and 15% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | — | $40 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P13 | ||
| > 15% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | $1 | $35 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| > 0% | 2027-08-04 | 1.0% | — | $12 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXPRIMARYMOV, notice id ELECTIONMOV-bulk-2026-04-10):
**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abdul El-Sayed if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abdul El-Sayed loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed wins, or the electoral votes received by Abdul El-Sayed minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abdul El-Sayed does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abdul El-Sayed runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abdul El-Sayed will be summed.
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abdul El-Sayed ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abdul El-Sayed is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-08-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%? | kalshi | 2026-08-25 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds hold high on a wide El-Sayed primary margin 99% · $442K 24h
- Kalshi contract pricing a wide victory margin at 99%, blowout outcome near-certain per market.
- 84% of all-time volume hit in 24h; contract is essentially fully discovered.
- Complements the nominee contract, traders are pricing both the win and the size of it.
- Resolves once official Michigan primary canvass reports the margin.
- Heavy trading tests El-Sayed MI Senate margin odds 45% · $41K 24h
- Market prices a 45% chance El-Sayed wins by the specified margin, a near-toss-up on the spread.
- $41K traded in 24h equals 26% of all-time volume, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention.
- Michigan's Democratic primary is a closely watched bellwether; margin bets attract late-deciding capital as results near.
- Resolves on certified margin data from the Michigan primary.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GCZLRSF2K2",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-kxsenatemid26",
"question": "What will be the margin of victory in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"senate-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"2027-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 412820,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}