Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%? [ resolved 2026-06-09 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10% | 2026-06-09 | 100.0% | $282 | $409K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| > 20% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $2 | $257 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P60 | ||
| Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $8 | $1.7K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 | ||
| Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $81 | $13K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P12 | ||
| Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $3 | $1.5K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $10 | $825 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | — | $780 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | — | $248 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P12 | ||
| Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | — | $192 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 | ||
| > 20% | 2026-06-09 | 0.0% | $26 | $416 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P60 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed.
If Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (10 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-ky4r26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-ky4r26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-ky4r26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FH6177M0Y7",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-ky4r26",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2026-election",
"republican-primary",
"kentucky-politics",
"margin-of-victory",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 427407,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}