Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 8%? [ resolves 2027-04-28 (296D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 8% | 2027-04-28 | 99.0% | $118 | $175K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P6 | ||
| Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 4% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | $0 | $1.1K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | $1 | $877 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 16% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | $21 | $253 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P14 | ||
| Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 20% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $164 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P18 | ||
| > 20% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $261 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P60 | ||
| Nithya Raman in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 4% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | $2 | $169 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P2 | ||
| Nithya Raman in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 8% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $128 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P6 | ||
| Nithya Raman in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $45 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P10 | ||
| Nithya Raman in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 16% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $24 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P14 | ||
| Nithya Raman in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 20% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $25 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P18 | ||
| > 20% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $22 | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P60 | ||
| > 0% | 2027-04-28 | 1.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXPRIMARYMOV…P50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Karen Bass will be summed.
If Karen Bass wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Karen Bass loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Karen Bass is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Spencer Pratt in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 0%? | kalshi | 2027-04-28 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-mayorla2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-mayorla2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-mayorla2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D63V66YZ42",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-mayorla2026",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 8%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"los-angeles-politics",
"mayoral-election-2026",
"margin-of-victory",
"first-round-voting",
"karen-bass"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 180092,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}