What will be the margin of victory in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary? [ resolves 2027-05-19 (350D) ]
Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 25% and 30%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 95.0% | — | $7.6K | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P27 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 4.0% | — | $329 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P32 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $126 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…-P7 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $41 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P17 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $40 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P22 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P37 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $31 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P42 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $35 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P47 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P52 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S.… | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $41 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P57 | ||
| > 60% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $39 | A | KXPRIMARYMOV…P80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary falls within 0% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Andy Barr minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Andy Barr minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Andy Barr if Andy Barr wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Andy Barr loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Andy Barr wins, or the electoral votes received by Andy Barr minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Andy Barr does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Andy Barr runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Andy Barr will be summed.
If Andy Barr wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Andy Barr loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Andy Barr ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Andy Barr is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimarymov-senatekyr26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimarymov-senatekyr26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimarymov-senatekyr26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SN4Y45FB54",
"slug": "kxprimarymov-senatekyr26",
"question": "What will be the margin of victory in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"kentucky-politics",
"republican-primary",
"us-senate-2027",
"margin-of-victory",
"electoral-mechanics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8400,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}