Will Ron DeSantis finish in second place in the Florida Republican governor primary? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Collins | 2026-08-27 | 100.0% | $372 | $42K | A | KXPRIMARYPLA…COL | ||
| James Fishback | 2026-08-27 | 0.0% | $1.8K | $30K | A | KXPRIMARYPLA…FIS | ||
| Byron Donalds | 2027-08-18 | 3.0% | $8 | $644 | A | KXPRIMARYPLA…DON | ||
| Paul Renner | 2027-08-18 | 2.0% | $117 | $518 | A | KXPRIMARYPLA…REN | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2027-08-18 | 1.0% | — | $41 | A | KXPRIMARYPLA…DES |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jay Collins finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)
For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals
For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography" sources (1) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 100% |
| NO | Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Jay Collins second-place Florida finish holds at 99% 99% · $87K 24h
- Market prices Jay Collins finishing runner-up in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary at 99%.
- $87K in 24h covers 42% of all-time volume, elevated but leaving a sliver of residual uncertainty.
- The 1% discount from certainty suggests some open risk on official canvass rounding or certification.
- Contract resolves on Florida's certified primary finishing order for the gubernatorial race.
- Fishback FL governor 2nd-place odds slip to 21% 21% · $19K 24h
- Kalshi prices Fishback finishing 2nd at 21%, a minority outcome with a contested field below Donalds.
- 39% of all-time volume in 24h ($19K), the contract's heaviest single-day activity on record.
- With Donalds locked at 99% for the nomination, 2nd-place battle among remaining candidates draws fresh attention.
- Resolves on certified primary results showing Fishback's ranked finish.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3CCRHR07J9",
"slug": "kxprimaryplace-kxgovflnomr-2",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis finish in second place in the Florida Republican governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"republican-primary",
"gubernatorial-race",
"2027-election",
"candidate-placement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}