Will it rain in New York City during July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (15D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 99.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-1 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 99.0% | — | $6.2K | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-2 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 99.0% | — | $12K | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-3 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 75.0% | $629 | $20K | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-4 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 14.0% | $14 | $14 | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-5 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-6 | ||
| Rain in NYC in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | $5 | $5 | A | KXRAINNYCM-26JUL-7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NWS Climatological Report NY | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the total precipitation at Central Park, New York City in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NWS Climatological Report NY" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- NWS Climatological Report NY source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrainnycm-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrainnycm-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrainnycm-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J6KGGFFKG4",
"slug": "kxrainnycm-26jul",
"question": "Will it rain in New York City during July 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"nyc-weather",
"precipitation",
"july-2026",
"climate-monitoring",
"us-northeast"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39961,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "NWS Climatological Report NY",
"resolution_source_url": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "NWS Climatological Report NY",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NWS Climatological Report NY",
"url": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}