Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 27.8% | $1.8K | $96K | A | KXRATECUT-26DEC31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close and determine on the first 10 AM ET following the occurrence of the event if the event occurs prior to the target date.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Fed rate cut before 2027 consensus wavers at low conviction Kalshi 22%
- Kalshi prediction market prices only 22% on the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate before 2027.
- June jobs forecasts calling for solid hiring are consistent with the low cut probability, strong employment data reduces urgency for easing.
- A separate Kalshi contract puts just 7% on any cut exceeding 25 basis points in a single meeting, reinforcing the market's cautious-hold posture.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy decision; any cut of any size before January 1, 2027 would trigger resolution as YES.
- Fed cut before 2027 consensus fractures at low probability Kalshi 24%
- Kalshi prices a Fed cut before 2027 at 24%, a low-conviction read despite the full calendar year remaining.
- Removal of the dovish inflation phrase signals tighter guidance from the Fed, and the market is largely consistent -- not pricing aggressive cuts.
- Companion Kalshi contract on a cut larger than 25 basis points in a single meeting sits at just 7%, reinforcing shallow-cut-only expectations.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official announcement; any inter-meeting cut would also qualify, though historically rare.
- Fed cut before 2027 consensus fractures under hawkish drift Kalshi 28%
- Kalshi prices the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate before 2027 at only 28%.
- Warsh's reduced forward-guidance posture, highlighted across multiple outlets, is consistent with a market that assigns less than one-in-three odds to any cut this year.
- PCE inflation data due this week is the next hard catalyst; a hot print would apply further downward pressure on cut odds already near historic lows.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any intra-meeting or emergency cut would also satisfy the contract.
- Fed cut before 2027 pricing fractures on dual macro headwinds Kalshi 28%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts only 28% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate before 2027.
- Strong retail sales, a firm jobs report, and the Warsh-era hawkish dot plot are all consistent with a market that strongly leans against any 2026 cut.
- The 28% residual probability likely reflects tail scenarios: a sharp economic deterioration or a geopolitical shock forcing the Fed's hand.
- The Kalshi contract at 7% on a cut exceeding 25 basis points in a single meeting (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) reinforces that even if a cut occurs, the market sees it as shallow.
- Fed cut before 2027 consensus wavers at 19 percent Kalshi 19%
- Kalshi prices only a 19% chance the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate before 2027.
- May's 172K jobs print and Warsh's hawkish signals align with this low probability, not at odds with it.
- Goldman Sachs (Story 4) now expects no easing until 2027, consistent with the 81% market-implied probability of no cut.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; any cut of any size before January 1, 2027 would settle this YES.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxratecut-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxratecut-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxratecut-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
"slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 95911,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}