Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | — | $1.7K | B | KXRECBILL-27-ICE1 | ||
| Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years | 2026-06-10 | 100.0% | $29 | $7.9K | B | KXRECBILL-27-ICE3 | ||
| Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $8 | $234 | B | KXRECBILL-27-DHS1 | ||
| Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 3 years | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $42 | B | KXRECBILL-27-DHS3 | ||
| > 1 | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $12 | B | KXRECBILL-27-DEF | ||
| A provision reducing improper payments in the Earned Income Tax Credit | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXRECBILL-27-EITC | ||
| A reduction in Medicaid spending | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $56 | B | KXRECBILL-27-MEDI | ||
| New state grants related to election administration | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXRECBILL-27-ELEC | ||
| Funding that can be used for security purposes related to the White House Ballroom project | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $135 | B | KXRECBILL-27-BALL | ||
| Funding for the U.S. Secret Service | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | — | $381 | B | KXRECBILL-27-USSS | ||
| Any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 | 2026-06-10 | 0.0% | $985 | $3.7K | B | KXRECBILL-27-WEP |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the next reconciliation bill to become law includes mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Defense appropriations totaling more than $1 billion be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will A provision reducing improper payments in the Earned Income Tax Credit be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will A reduction in Medicaid spending be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will New state grants related to election administration be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will funding that can be used for security purposes related to the White House Ballroom project be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will funding for the U.S. Secret Service be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mandatory funding for all of DHS lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
| YES | Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 1 year be in the next reconciliation bill? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (11 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecbill-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecbill-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrecbill-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1BY2QKWDX8",
"slug": "kxrecbill-27",
"question": "Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-reconciliation-bill",
"budget-legislation",
"legislative-outcome",
"2027",
"congress-action"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14177,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://congress.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}