How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-02 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 0 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027 | 2027-01-02 | 0.1% | — | $56 | A | KXRECCOUNT-27-0 | ||
| Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027 | 2027-01-02 | 90.0% | $62 | $21K | A | KXRECCOUNT-27-1 | ||
| Will 2 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027 | 2027-01-02 | 13.0% | $203 | $5.4K | A | KXRECCOUNT-27-2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If 0 reconciliation bills become law in Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will 0 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-02 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Reconciliation passage in 2026 holds near full pricing Kalshi 82%
- Kalshi prediction market prices an 82% chance at least one reconciliation bill passes in 2026.
- Johnson's commitment to re-pass the SAVE America Act is consistent with Kalshi's high probability, though the repeated restarts highlight legislative fragility.
- The 18% residual probability reflects ongoing Republican intra-party friction, as dissenting GOP members publicly call for Trump to change course.
- Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress bill-tracking data; the contract counts bills enacted, not passed by one chamber, so Senate passage remains the critical gating step.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxreccount-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxreccount-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxreccount-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1WV8R9JXH3",
"slug": "kxreccount-27",
"question": "How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-congress",
"budget-reconciliation",
"legislative-process",
"2026",
"quantitative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26165,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}