CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 9 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 92.4%
$45 $5.7K
A KXRECNCH-26-JAN01
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 84.0%
$1.1K $11K
A KXRECNCH-26-JUL03
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 72.0%
$4.5K $50K
A KXRECNCH-26-JUN12
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 26.0%
$4.7K $9.0K
A KXRECNCH-26-JUN06
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 1.0%
$564
A KXRECNCH-26-MAY23
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 1.0%
$1.6K
A KXRECNCH-26-MAY24
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 1.0%
$1 $314
A KXRECNCH-26-JUN03
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 0.2%
$126
A KXRECNCH-26-MAY01
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026 2027-01-01 0.1%
$156
A KXRECNCH-26-MAY22
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Library of Congress not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 9 markets · share this text
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before May 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…"
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecnch-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecnch-26.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxrecnch-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y73T1JFZP5",
  "slug": "kxrecnch-26",
  "question": "Will the House pass a reconciliation bill?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "legislative-action",
    "house-reconciliation",
    "budget-process",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 77839,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →