Will any country recognize Palestine before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 13 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
New Zealand · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	18.0%	—	$1.7K	C	`KXRECOGPALES…-NZ`
Italy · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	16.0%	$0	$2.1K	C	`KXRECOGPALES…ITA`
Japan · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$2.2K	C	`KXRECOGPALES…JAP`
Switzerland · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$1.0K	C	`KXRECOGPALES…SWI`
Greece · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	14.0%	—	$984	C	`KXRECOGPALES…GRE`
Singapore · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$14	C	`KXRECOGPALES…SIN`
South Korea · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$62	C	`KXRECOGPALES…-SK`
Germany · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$846	C	`KXRECOGPALES…GER`
Panama · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$806	C	`KXRECOGPALES…PAN`
The Netherlands · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	9.9%	$8	$513	C	`KXRECOGPALES…DUT`
Finland · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	7.9%	$0	$740	C	`KXRECOGPALES…FIN`
Austria · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	5.0%	—	$437	C	`KXRECOGPALES…AUS`
USA · Who will recognize Palestine?	2027-01-01	4.7%	—	$215	C	`KXRECOGPALES…USA`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 13 markets · share this text

If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to: - A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state - Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level - Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates) - Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations - An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty - A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister The following do **NOT** constitute recognition: - Trade relations or commercial agreements alone - Consular relations without diplomatic relations - Participation in the same international conference - Humanitarian assistance or aid - Cultural or educational exchanges - Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities) - Statements of "support" without formal recognition - De facto cooperation without formal recognition - Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred - Parliamentary resolutions without executive action **For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

sources (14)

ABC venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
BBC venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Financial Times venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecogpalestine-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecogpalestine-27`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxrecogpalestine-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TL731KTQP9",
  "slug": "kxrecogpalestine-27",
  "question": "Will any country recognize Palestine before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "palestine-recognition",
    "international-diplomacy",
    "geopolitical-recognition",
    "middle-east-politics",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 13,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 11576,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 46,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Financial Times",
      "url": "https://ft.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →