Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $1 | $60K | C | KXRECOGPERSO…-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (22) · single authority
ABC venue-listed Axios venue-listed BBC venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed CNN venue-listed foreign ministry of country_1 committed source Fox News venue-listed government and foreign ministry of country_2 venue-listed government of country_1 venue-listed head of government of country_1 venue-listed head of state of country_1 venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed NBC venue-listed Politico venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Semafor venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Information venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed
recent wire items
- US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi prices only 6% on the United States recognizing Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026, resolving via ABC.
- Pezeshkian's conditional ceasefire offer implies Iranian leadership is engaged diplomatically, making a US pivot to regime-change recognition even less likely near-term.
- The companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at 2%, reinforcing that markets see no normalization path in sight.
- The 6% Pahlavi recognition price and 2% embassy reopening price together bracket the full range of US-Iran rapprochement scenarios as remote.
- US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot Kalshi 7%
- Kalshi puts 7% odds on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran by 2026, resolved via ABC News.
- The stalemate framing, Iran betting time is on its side and Trump pivoting to sanctions, is consistent with the market treating regime-change recognition as a remote outcome.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the same question prices just 5%, with the two-point spread between venues reflecting minor resolution or framing differences.
- Resolution requires an official US government declaration, not battlefield gains, a high political bar that keeps both contracts in single digits.
- Markets put long odds on US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi prices US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader at just 6%, with trading volume up over 23,000% day over day.
- The stalemate narrative is broadly consistent with the low probability: no regime change outcome is in sight despite six months of conflict.
- The companion Polymarket contract on the same question sits at 5%, showing near-identical cross-venue pricing with no meaningful gap.
- Both contracts resolve via ABC News reporting; the volume spike signals the stalemate story is drawing fresh speculative attention, not a pricing shift.
- Reza Pahlavi recognized as Iran leader remains a long shot Kalshi 7%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices only a 7% chance the US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026.
- Deepening military escalation and stalled diplomacy, per the AP report, are consistent with the low probability of a rapid political transition scenario.
- The Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at 4%, reinforcing that markets see normalization as a remote near-term outcome.
- Kalshi resolves via ABC News reporting; recognition would require an official US government declaration within the 2026 window.
- US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi prices only 6% on the U.S. recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by end of 2026.
- Despite escalating U.S. strikes and Trump threatening a massive attack, markets see regime-change recognition as a remote outcome this year.
- A companion Polymarket contract puts the Iranian regime's fall before 2027 at 9%, and Kalshi prices a U.S. embassy reopening in Iran at just 7%, consistent with a low-probability regime-change scenario.
- Resolution adjudicated by ABC News reporting on an official U.S. government recognition act.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrecogpersoniran-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
"slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
"question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iran-politics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"reza-pahlavi",
"diplomatic-recognition",
"regime-change"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 59992,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "foreign ministry of country_1",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "foreign ministry of country_1",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "government and foreign ministry of country_2",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "government of country_1",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "head of government of country_1",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "head of state of country_1",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}