Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026	2027-01-01	7.2%		$142	$66K		C	`KXRECOGPERSO…-26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxrecogpersoniran-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iran-politics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "regime-change"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 65735,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 48,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →