Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026	2027-01-01	7.8%		$106	$72K		C	`KXRECOGPERSO…-26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

sources (22) · single authority

ABC venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
BBC venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
foreign ministry of country_1 source of record venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
government and foreign ministry of country_2 venue-listed
government of country_1 venue-listed
head of government of country_1 venue-listed
head of state of country_1 venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Reza Pahlavi recognition pricing holds deep discount amid strikes Kalshi 7%
- Kalshi prices only 7% on the US formally recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, despite active US military engagement with Iranian forces.
- Escalating airstrikes and troop deaths have not moved market pricing toward regime-change scenarios; the market treats recognition as a low-probability political step.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) prices just 7% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, confirming markets see normalization as equally remote.
- Resolution is via ABC News reporting on formal US government recognition; military strikes alone would not trigger resolution without a diplomatic declaration.
2026-07-15T02:46:23.000Z momentum-repricing
Reza Pahlavi recognition consensus stays depressed amid active Iran war Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by 2026 at 8%, a low but non-trivial tail.
- Active US strikes on Iran focus on military and energy targets, not political transition, making formal recognition unlikely in the near term.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-0SWQB28081 prices the same scenario at 4%, a 4-point gap across venues worth monitoring as a cross-venue spread.
- Resolves via ABC; recognition would require an explicit US government declaration, a high procedural bar.
2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Pahlavi recognition by US end-2026 holds at deep discount Kalshi 7%
- Kalshi prices only 7% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by end-2026, a deep discount despite active military escalation.
- Escalating US strikes and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states are consistent with regime pressure, but markets see a formal recognition outcome as highly unlikely this year.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) prices just 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, confirming the market sees no near-term diplomatic normalization either direction.
- Resolves via ABC News determination of official US recognition; active conflict makes formal recognition mechanics highly uncertain for the 2026 window.
2026-07-08T07:10:32.000Z momentum-repricing
Reza Pahlavi recognition as Iran leader holds at deep discount Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi prices only a 5% probability the US formally recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran by end-2026, resolving via ABC.
- Despite full-scale US military strikes on over 80 Iranian targets and Trump declaring the ceasefire over, the market assigns near-zero odds to regime replacement via formal US recognition.
- A companion Kalshi contract prices only a 5% chance the US reopens its embassy in Iran (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1), reinforcing that the market sees confrontation continuing without either diplomatic normalization or regime change.
- Resolves via ABC News reporting of a formal US government recognition statement; the current military escalation does not appear to move this market toward regime-change pricing.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecogpersoniran-26`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxrecogpersoniran-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "iran-politics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "diplomatic-recognition",
    "regime-change"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 71962,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 44,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "foreign ministry of country_1",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "foreign ministry of country_1",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "government and foreign ministry of country_2",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "government of country_1",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "head of government of country_1",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "head of state of country_1",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →