Will the United States enter a recession this year? [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
Will there be a recession in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a recession in 2026 | 2027-01-31 | 6.0% | $1.6K | $188K | A | KXRECSSNBER-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Economic Analysis committed source
recent wire items
- Recession odds in 2026 run higher on the deeper-volume desk Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 5%
- Polymarket prices a 2026 recession at 10%, Kalshi at 5%, a 5pp gap, with Polymarket higher.
- Polymarket is both the higher and the far more liquid venue, with volume more than 12x Kalshi's.
- Polymarket's premium may reflect more active macro-focused participants or a stricter, cleaner resolution source on Kalshi depressing its price.
- Resolution hinges on the specific recession definition each platform applies, differing criteria can mechanically produce different prices.
- 2026 recession odds carry a premium on the major prediction desks Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 5%, Polymarket at 12%, a 7pp spread with the year nearly complete.
- Polymarket sits higher at 12% with $2.13M in cumulative volume; Kalshi sits at 5% on $179K volume.
- Resolution-definition differences may explain part of the gap, recession triggers vary by adjudicator, making contract language the key credibility variable.
- Both contracts resolve on whether a recognized recession is declared or confirmed as occurring within calendar year 2026.
- 2026 recession call splits across venues with Polymarket twice as high Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi prices recession at 6% vs Polymarket at 12%, a 6pp gap, with Polymarket double the level
- Polymarket holds the dominant book; Kalshi's volume is roughly one-tenth the size
- Kalshi's lower print may reflect a stricter resolution standard or different user base expectations on defining 'recession'
- Resolution likely hinges on an official NBER declaration or two consecutive negative GDP quarters before year-end 2026
- US 2026 recession odds trade far apart on the major prediction desks Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi prices a 2026 US recession at 4%; Polymarket at 10%, a 6pp spread.
- Polymarket is the higher side and holds the much deeper book by a wide margin.
- Kalshi's lower price may reflect stricter resolution criteria or a narrower participant base on this contract.
- Resolution typically hinges on an official NBER recession declaration covering calendar year 2026.
- US recession in 2026 stays near long-shot odds, gaps modestly across desks Polymarket 14% vs Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 9%, Polymarket at 14%, a 5pp gap
- Polymarket is the higher venue and holds roughly 6x Kalshi's cumulative volume
- Both venues carry substantial liquidity here, making this the most credibly contested divergence in the batch
- Resolution hinges on the official definition of recession applied, typically two consecutive quarters of negative GDP
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecssnber-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecssnber-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrecssnber-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
"slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
"question": "Will the United States enter a recession this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-economy",
"recession-prediction",
"2027",
"macroeconomic-indicator",
"economic-downturn"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 187896,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}