Which states will robotaxi be offered in by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-31 (192D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 2027-01-31 | 90.0% | — | $8.1K | C | KXROBOTAXIAR…-FL | ||
| Arizona | 2027-01-31 | 81.0% | $472 | $3.7K | C | KXROBOTAXIAR…-AZ | ||
| Nevada | 2027-01-31 | 77.0% | $914 | $4.5K | C | KXROBOTAXIAR…-NV | ||
| Georgia | 2027-01-31 | 23.0% | — | $102 | C | KXROBOTAXIAR…-GA | ||
| California | 2027-01-31 | 15.0% | $113 | $1.4K | C | KXROBOTAXIAR…-CA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For "offered to": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Arizona that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:
The service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)
The vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation
The service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)
For "removed from": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Arizona that met all the "offered to" criteria above, where:
The service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.
The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
If a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes
Services limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests
Beta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations
Services requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use
Vehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control
Temporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues
Services operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously
Test fleets that are not charging fares to the general public
Announcements of future launches without actual operational service
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" sources (5) · single authority
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- the New York Times venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Elon Musk venue-listed
- Tesla Inc source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENDING | Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 90% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrobotaxiarea-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrobotaxiarea-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrobotaxiarea-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-018V10RKK3",
"slug": "kxrobotaxiarea-26dec",
"question": "Which states will robotaxi be offered in by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"robotaxi-deployment",
"us-state-expansion",
"autonomous-vehicles",
"geographic-coverage",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17850,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tesla Inc",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tesla Inc",
"url": "https://www.tesla.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}