What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? [ resolves 2027-08-15 (376D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 1.5 | 2027-08-15 | 3.0% | — | $30 | A | KXRONI-27AUG-T15 | ||
| Between 1.5°C and 1.9°C | 2027-08-15 | 10.0% | — | $377 | A | KXRONI-27AUG-B15 | ||
| Between 2.0°C and 2.4°C | 2027-08-15 | 13.0% | $1 | $444 | A | KXRONI-27AUG-B20 | ||
| Between 2.5°C and 2.9°C | 2027-08-15 | 27.0% | $16 | $1.2K | A | KXRONI-27AUG-B25 | ||
| At least 3.0°C | 2027-08-15 | 56.0% | $4 | $3.9K | A | KXRONI-27AUG-T30 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | San Francisco Unified School District | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → " San Francisco Unified School District" sources (2) · single authority
- San Francisco Unified School District venue-listed
- NOAA CPC official RONI table source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxroni-27aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxroni-27aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxroni-27aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KHF6SRZBT3",
"slug": "kxroni-27aug",
"question": "What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"el-nino",
"climate-indices",
"roni-index",
"temperature-measurement",
"seasonal-climate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5926,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
"url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NOAA CPC official RONI table",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}