Will any specific person run for public office in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will Joe Kent announce a run for an elected public office in 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Bilzerian announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 98.9% | — | $90 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…BIL | ||
| Will Joe Kent announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 18.0% | — | $464 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…KEN | ||
| Will Casey DeSantis announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 13.0% | — | $2.2K | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…DES | ||
| Will Matt Gaetz announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 11.0% | — | $689 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…GAE | ||
| Will Jake Paul announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 9.6% | — | $549 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…PAU | ||
| Will Glenn Youngkin announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 7.0% | — | $598 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…YOU | ||
| Will Mark Cuban announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 5.9% | $4 | $975 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…CUB | ||
| Will Danica Patrick announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 4.0% | — | $227 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…PAT | ||
| Will Paul Finebaum announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 3.0% | — | $455 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…FIN | ||
| Will Matthew McConaughey announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 2.1% | $0 | $538 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…MCC | ||
| Will Nicki Minaj announce a run for an elected public office in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 1.1% | — | $6 | B | KXRUNBYMIDTE…MIN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Danica Patrick has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrunbymidterm-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrunbymidterm-26nov03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrunbymidterm-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BV1P07S469",
"slug": "kxrunbymidterm-26nov03",
"question": "Will any specific person run for public office in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"2026-elections",
"candidate-announcements",
"political-campaigns",
"electoral-participation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6834,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}