Will the SAVE Act become law? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (182D) ]
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027 | 2027-01-04 | 9.1% | $1.4K | $513K | A | KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
|| Additional Info ||
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · single authority
- White House venue-listed
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- SAVE Act becoming law prices as a deep long-shot on Kalshi Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices only 8% on the SAVE Act becoming law, resolving via White House confirmation.
- Trump's refusal to sign the housing bill as a protest against the SAVE Act suggests active presidential opposition; the 8% is consistent with that stance.
- No companion market available with a price to benchmark the SAVE Act probability against a broader legislative timeline.
- Resolves via White House; the automatic-law mechanism for the housing bill does not apply to the SAVE Act, which requires affirmative action.
- SAVE Act becoming law wavers near long-shot pricing Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices only 9% on the SAVE Act becoming law, treating passage as a long-shot despite Trump's high-profile pressure campaign.
- Trump's leverage play, blocking a popular housing bill to force the SAVE Act, has not moved the Kalshi contract toward meaningful probability.
- The market is pricing the Senate Republican resistance as a significant obstacle; the standoff narrative is consistent with, not contradicted by, the 9% quote.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of enactment; the housing bill's veto-proof margins in both chambers are not captured by this contract but illustrate the legislative cross-pressure.
- SAVE Act becoming law holds at deep discount despite Trump leverage Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices only a 9% probability the SAVE Act becomes law, unchanged despite Trump's public pressure campaign.
- Trump's housing bill hostage-taking adds political leverage, but the market treats Senate passage of SAVE Act as still highly unlikely.
- The separate Kalshi contract on at least one reconciliation bill passing in 2026 sits at 90%, showing broader legislative optimism excludes the SAVE Act.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature; Senate floor vote is the primary bottleneck per the resolution mechanic.
- SAVE Act becoming law priced at deep discount despite White House push Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices only a 9% probability the SAVE Act becomes law, despite Trump tying it to FISA renewal as leverage.
- Markets are treating Trump's FISA linkage as a negotiating posture rather than a credible path to enactment, given the 9% read.
- The White House separately eyes July 4 passage for the CLARITY Act crypto bill; Congress is managing multiple legislative deadlines simultaneously.
- Resolves via the White House official record of enactment; the bar is presidential signature into law, not passage of either chamber alone.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsaveact-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsaveact-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsaveact-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QFC5QGJS96",
"slug": "kxsaveact-27",
"question": "Will the SAVE Act become law?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-legislation",
"congress-119th",
"2027-resolution",
"bill-passage",
"immigration-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 512544,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}