Will the Supreme Court of the United States uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (26D) ]
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v.… | 2026-08-01 | 17.0% | $43 | $12K | A | KXSCOTUSMARI…GUN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in United States v. Hemani, rules that the federal government may continue to bar marijuana users from buying or possessing firearms under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the Fifth Circuit’s decision invalidating § 922(g)(3) as applied to marijuana users, and upholds the federal prohibition on firearm possession by an “unlawful user” of a controlled substance, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (2) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
- Supreme Court of the United States from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxscotusmarijuanagun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxscotusmarijuanagun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxscotusmarijuanagun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JL2R17Q8K4",
"slug": "kxscotusmarijuanagun",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"scotus-decision",
"gun-rights",
"marijuana-policy",
"federal-law",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11679,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}