Will a South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner be determined by January 1, 2027? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2026-08-26 | 100.0% | $96K | $1.02M | A | KXSCRSENS-26-DNOR | ||
| Ralph Norman · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $17K | $133K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-RNOR | ||
| Russell Fry · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $3.9K | $81K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY | ||
| Mark Sanford · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $1.3K | $6.8K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-MSAN | ||
| Pamela Evette · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-PEVE | ||
| Nancy Mace · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-NMAC | ||
| Mark Lynch · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | $15 | $1.1K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-MLYN | ||
| Nikki Haley · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $375 | A | KXSCRSENS-26-NHAL | ||
| Scott Bessent · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $32 | A | KXSCRSENS-26-SBES | ||
| Trey Gowdy · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXSCRSENS-26-TGOW | ||
| Henry McMaster · Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $268 | A | KXSCRSENS-26-HMCM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Pamela Evette wins the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
relevant county clerk or board of elections venue-listed Attorney General of the United States venue-listed relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed the Federal Election Commission venue-listed state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-26 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Graham stays the favorite to win SC Republican Senate primary 73% · $623K 24h
- Kalshi prices the leading candidate at 73% to win the full South Carolina Republican Senate special primary.
- $623K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, meaningful fresh flow, not a final flush.
- Contrast with the first-round contract at 99% suggests runoff risk is still live and being actively traded.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the SC Republican Senate special primary.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxscrsens-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxscrsens-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxscrsens-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YGVX09RD56",
"slug": "kxscrsens-26",
"question": "Will a South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner be determined by January 1, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"south-carolina",
"republican-primary",
"senate-election",
"2027",
"special-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1244668,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}