Will a specific candidate run for South Carolina Senate? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham Nordone | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $41K | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…NOR | ||
| Mark Lynch | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.3K | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…LYN | ||
| Russell Fry | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $20K | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…FRY | ||
| Ralph Norman | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $20K | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…NOR | ||
| Henry McMaster | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $72 | $147 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…MCM | ||
| Pamela Evette | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $119 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…EVE | ||
| Nikki Haley | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $29 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…HAL | ||
| Nancy Mace | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $183 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…MAC | ||
| Scott Bessent | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $57 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…BES | ||
| Trey Gowdy | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $76 | C | KXSCRSENSRUN…GOW |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Darline Graham Nordone has announced that they will run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026 before Aug 11, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (14)
ABC venue-listed Fox News venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed The Information venue-listed CBS venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Darline Graham Nordone announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-20 | 99% |
| YES | Will Russell Fry announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-20 | 99% |
| YES | Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 99% |
| YES | Will Mark Lynch announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxscrsensrun-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxscrsensrun-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxscrsensrun-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7KP8S5CQP6",
"slug": "kxscrsensrun-26",
"question": "Will a specific candidate run for South Carolina Senate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"south-carolina-senate",
"us-senate-2026",
"candidate-announcement",
"electoral-politics",
"senate-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 85008,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}