Will a Florida Republican be nominated as the Republican Senate nominee in the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 2026-11-03 | 93.5% | — | $34K | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-AM | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 2026-11-03 | 5.6% | — | $738 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-RDS | ||
| José R. Oliva | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $37 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-JO | ||
| Jay Collins | 2026-11-03 | 1.8% | — | $29 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-JC | ||
| Cory Mills | 2026-11-03 | 1.4% | — | $128 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-CM | ||
| Ashton Hayward | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-AH | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $6 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-CDS | ||
| Jeanette Nuñez | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-JN | ||
| James Uthmeier | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-JU | ||
| Lara Trump | 2026-11-03 | 0.9% | — | $224 | A | KXSENATEFLR-26-LT |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ashton Hayward wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
- Democratic Party venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenateflr-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenateflr-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenateflr-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YZ4P8Z2071",
"slug": "kxsenateflr-26",
"question": "Will a Florida Republican be nominated as the Republican Senate nominee in the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2026-us-senate",
"florida-politics",
"republican-primary",
"nomination-race",
"senate-nominee"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35077,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}