CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be determined by September 15, 2026? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-09 ]

Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Massachusetts?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Ed Markey 2026-09-02 100.0%
$469 $97K
A KXSENATEMAD-…MAR
Seth Moulton 2026-09-15 27.0%
$25 $35K
A KXSENATEMAD-…MOU
Alexander Rikleen 2026-09-15 1.2%
$6
A KXSENATEMAD-…RIK
Ayanna Pressley 2026-09-15 1.0%
$92
A KXSENATEMAD-…PRE
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Republican Party not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 4 markets · share this text
If Ed Markey wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Massachusetts Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party"
sources (2) · single authority
Republican Party venue-listed Democratic Party committed source
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Massachusetts? kalshi 2026-09-02 100%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-09-01T13:00:43+00:00 volume-spike
    Markey MA Senate nomination trades near certainty 99% · $240K 24h
    • 99% price leaves almost no room for a Democratic primary upset in Massachusetts.
    • 24h volume of $240K is 27% of all-time, a significant conviction flush into an already-settled line.
    • Fresh capital at near-certainty odds suggests traders are locking in positions ahead of a formal filing deadline or ballot certification.
    • Contract resolves on Democratic nominee status; no general-election outcome implied.
  • 2026-08-29T13:34:58+00:00 volume-spike
    Markey nomination odds hold firm through a volume surge 98% · $136K 24h
    • 98% price leaves almost no probability of a credible challenger emerging in the Massachusetts Democratic primary.
    • Kalshi sees $136K in 24h, hitting 25% of all-time volume, a notable liquidity event for a near-settled contract.
    • Fresh volume into a 98% market suggests either late entrants locking in yes-side exposure or a small faction testing downside.
    • Resolves on the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemad-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatemad-26
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatemad-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J620PJQLH6",
  "slug": "kxsenatemad-26",
  "question": "Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be determined by September 15, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "massachusetts-senate",
    "democratic-nominee",
    "us-election-2026",
    "primary-election",
    "electoral-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 132392,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Republican Party",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Republican Party",
      "url": "https://gop.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Democratic Party",
      "url": "https://democrats.org/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →