Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be determined by September 15, 2026? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-09 ]
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Massachusetts?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ed Markey wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Massachusetts Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Massachusetts? | kalshi | 2026-09-02 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Markey MA Senate nomination trades near certainty 99% · $240K 24h
- 99% price leaves almost no room for a Democratic primary upset in Massachusetts.
- 24h volume of $240K is 27% of all-time, a significant conviction flush into an already-settled line.
- Fresh capital at near-certainty odds suggests traders are locking in positions ahead of a formal filing deadline or ballot certification.
- Contract resolves on Democratic nominee status; no general-election outcome implied.
- Markey nomination odds hold firm through a volume surge 98% · $136K 24h
- 98% price leaves almost no probability of a credible challenger emerging in the Massachusetts Democratic primary.
- Kalshi sees $136K in 24h, hitting 25% of all-time volume, a notable liquidity event for a near-settled contract.
- Fresh volume into a 98% market suggests either late entrants locking in yes-side exposure or a small faction testing downside.
- Resolves on the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemad-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatemad-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatemad-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J620PJQLH6",
"slug": "kxsenatemad-26",
"question": "Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be determined by September 15, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"massachusetts-senate",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-election-2026",
"primary-election",
"electoral-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 132392,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}