Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine? [ resolved 2026-06-10 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Susan Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
| NO | Will Dan Smeriglio be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Collins as Maine GOP Senate nominee fully absorbed into pricing Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices Susan Collins as the Republican Senate nominee for Maine at 99%, reflecting the primary result as a near-done resolution.
- Platner's primary win confirms the Collins matchup; the 99% is fully consistent with Collins having secured her own nomination on the same night.
- The broader Senate control question is priced separately: Kalshi puts Republicans winning the Senate at 79% (CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46 Kansas race), with Maine as one of the competitive seats that shapes that outcome.
- Resolves via Republican Party official nominee designation; no credible challenger remaining after primary night makes this effectively settled.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemer-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatemer-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatemer-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FJC909J0Z4",
"slug": "kxsenatemer-26",
"question": "Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-senate",
"gop-primary",
"2026-election",
"republican-nominee",
"us-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28599,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}