Will the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will Mallory McMorrow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $741K | $3.92M | C | KXSENATEMID-…ELS | ||
| Haley Stevens | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $35K | $106K | C | KXSENATEMID-…STE | ||
| Mallory McMorrow | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $103 | $544 | C | KXSENATEMID-…MCM | ||
| Sarah Anthony | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $3 | C | KXSENATEMID-…ANT | ||
| Dana Nessel | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $8 | C | KXSENATEMID-…NES | ||
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $4 | C | KXSENATEMID-…MCD | ||
| Andy Levin | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $5 | C | KXSENATEMID-…LEV | ||
| Matt Sahr | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $2 | C | KXSENATEMID-…SAH | ||
| Rashida Tlaib | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $2 | $6 | C | KXSENATEMID-…TLA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Haley Stevens as MI Senate nominee slips to 2% 2% · $262K 24h
- Kalshi prices Stevens nomination at 2%, market has effectively ruled her out.
- 74% of all-time volume concentrated in 24h as primary results clarify.
- Volume surge on the 'No' side mirrors El-Sayed's 99% contract, same event, inverse side.
- Resolves on Michigan Democratic Senate primary certification.
- Traders pile into El-Sayed as MI Senate Dem nominee 99% · $5.8M 24h
- Kalshi prices El-Sayed at 99%, market treats nomination as effectively decided.
- 24h volume of $5.8M is 60% of all-time; single-day flow dominates contract history.
- Primary day or imminent vote count likely driving final settlement positioning.
- Resolves on certification of 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary result.
- Haley Stevens Michigan Senate odds slip to near zero 2% · $32K 24h
- At 2%, Kalshi has effectively ruled Stevens out of the Michigan Democratic Senate nomination.
- 24h volume of $32K represents 31% of all-time, fresh capital is arriving to confirm, not contest, the near-zero price.
- Volume alongside the El-Sayed and Thanedar/McKinney contracts suggests a broad Michigan primary repricing session.
- Resolves on the certified 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemid-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatemid-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatemid-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZMWFMPNXD9",
"slug": "kxsenatemid-26",
"question": "Will the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"michigan-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"nomination-race",
"electoral-mechanics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4025166,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}