Will the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 2026-11-03 | 88.0% | $127 | $40K | A | KXSENATEMND-…FLA | ||
| Angie Craig | 2026-11-03 | 15.0% | $218 | $7.5K | A | KXSENATEMND-…CRA | ||
| Ilhan Omar | 2026-11-03 | 1.6% | — | $24 | A | KXSENATEMND-…OMA | ||
| Keith Ellison | 2026-11-03 | 1.4% | — | $2 | A | KXSENATEMND-…ELL | ||
| Melisa López Franzen | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $14 | A | KXSENATEMND-…LOP | ||
| Melissa Hortman | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXSENATEMND-…HOR | ||
| Jacob Frey | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $5 | A | KXSENATEMND-…FRE | ||
| Betty McCollum | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEMND-…MCC | ||
| David Wellstone | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXSENATEMND-…WEL | ||
| Steve Simon | 2026-11-03 | 0.9% | — | $1 | A | KXSENATEMND-…SIM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Peggy Flanagan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party venue-listed
- Democratic Party source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Melissa Hortman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemnd-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatemnd-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatemnd-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2PF8PPK02",
"slug": "kxsenatemnd-26",
"question": "Will the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"minnesota-politics",
"democratic-nominee",
"election-primary",
"electoral-process"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 47811,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}