Will the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee be determined by 2026? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-11 ]
Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | 2026-09-09 | 100.0% | $1 | $7.5K | A | KXSENATENHD-…PAP | ||
| Maggie Goodlander | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $0 | A | KXSENATENHD-…GOO | ||
| Karishma Manzur | 2026-11-03 | 4.2% | $2 | $209 | A | KXSENATENHD-…MAN | ||
| Stefany Shaheen | 2026-11-03 | 2.8% | — | $6 | A | KXSENATENHD-…SHA | ||
| Annie Kuster | 2026-11-03 | 2.7% | — | $3 | A | KXSENATENHD-…KUS | ||
| Jared Sullivan | 2026-11-03 | 1.5% | — | $0 | A | KXSENATENHD-…SUL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Chris Pappas wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire? | kalshi | 2026-09-09 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Pappas locks up NH Senate Democratic nod at 97% 97% · $80K 24h
- Kalshi prices Pappas at 97%, market treats the Democratic nomination as virtually decided.
- 24h volume of $79K is 39% of all-time flow, a significant single-day capital commitment.
- September timing aligns with pre-primary filing deadlines, drawing fresh attention to the race.
- Resolves on NH Democratic Senate primary result.
- Pappas locks up NH Senate Democratic nod at 94% on Kalshi 94% · $26K 24h
- 94% on Kalshi prices Pappas as the near-certain Democratic Senate nominee in New Hampshire.
- Today's $26K is 32% of all-time handle, a meaningful single-day share in a race approaching resolution.
- Cross-venue alignment with Polymarket at 93% (spike 5) reinforces the read, two books, same signal.
- Resolves when New Hampshire certifies Democratic primary results.
- Traders back Pappas as the NH Senate Democratic pick 94% · $25K 24h
- Kalshi prices 94%, strong consensus Pappas locks up the Democratic Senate nomination in New Hampshire.
- 24h volume of $25K is 48% of all-time, indicating a meaningful fresh-attention moment.
- Spike likely reflects a filing deadline, endorsement, or candidate news narrowing the field.
- Nominee determination is the resolution trigger; general-election pricing would follow separately.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatenhd-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenatenhd-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenatenhd-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9VM5MYBG78",
"slug": "kxsenatenhd-26",
"question": "Will the New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee be determined by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"new-hampshire",
"democratic-primary",
"nominee-selection",
"electoral-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7720,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}