Will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? [ resolved 2026-06-05 ]
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, | 2026-05-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXSENATEREC-…Y16 | ||
| May 20, | 2026-05-20 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXSENATEREC-…Y20 | ||
| May 21, | 2026-05-21 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXSENATEREC-…Y21 | ||
| May 22, | 2026-05-22 | 0.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXSENATEREC-…Y22 | ||
| May 23, | 2026-05-23 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXSENATEREC-…Y23 | ||
| Jun 3, | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $21 | $354 | A | KXSENATEREC-…N03 | ||
| Jun 6, | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $29K | $130K | A | KXSENATEREC-…N06 | ||
| Jun 14, | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $14K | $79K | A | KXSENATEREC-…N14 | ||
| Jul 1, | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1.8K | $12K | A | KXSENATEREC-…L01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 22, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 21, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-20 | 0% |
| NO | Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-16 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenaterec-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenaterec-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsenaterec-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5N7HCCNDR4",
"slug": "kxsenaterec-26may",
"question": "Will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"budget-reconciliation",
"legislative-process",
"2026",
"fiscal-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 232536,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}