Will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? [ resolves 2026-06-14 (11D) ]

Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 9 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026	2026-06-14	82.0%	$1.8K	$12K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…L01`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026	2026-06-14	77.0%	$14K	$79K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…N14`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026	2026-06-14	53.0%	$29K	$130K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…N06`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	—	$2.5K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…Y16`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	—	$2.2K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…Y20`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 21, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	—	$2.1K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…Y21`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 22, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…Y22`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	—	$2.9K	A	`KXSENATEREC-…Y23`
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 3, 2026	2026-06-14	1.0%	$21	$354	A	`KXSENATEREC-…N03`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 9 markets · share this text

If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenaterec-26may/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsenaterec-26may.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxsenaterec-26may")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5N7HCCNDR4",
  "slug": "kxsenaterec-26may",
  "question": "Will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "budget-reconciliation",
    "legislative-process",
    "2026",
    "fiscal-policy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 232536,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →