Shopify gross merchandise volume, Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-09-04 (31D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $108,000,000,000 | 2026-09-04 | 99.0% | — | $9.1K | C | KXSHOP-26AUG…000 | ||
| ≥ $112,000,000,000 | 2026-09-04 | 85.0% | $468 | $1.1K | C | KXSHOP-26AUG…000 | ||
| ≥ $116,000,000,000 | 2026-09-04 | 48.0% | $26 | $4.8K | C | KXSHOP-26AUG…000 | ||
| ≥ $120,000,000,000 | 2026-09-04 | 10.0% | — | $519 | C | KXSHOP-26AUG…000 | ||
| ≥ $124,000,000,000 | 2026-09-04 | 2.0% | $0 | $42 | C | KXSHOP-26AUG…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Shopify Inc. reports Above 108000000000 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxshop-26auggmv/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxshop-26auggmv |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxshop-26auggmv") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5J02FXVM76",
"slug": "kxshop-26auggmv",
"question": "Shopify gross merchandise volume, Q2 2026",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"shopify",
"gross-merchandise-volume",
"q2-2026",
"ecommerce-metrics",
"financial-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15597,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}