Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (57D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 22 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom Energy | 2026-09-30 | 37.0% | $33 | $2.6K | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…-BE | ||
| 2026-09-30 | 21.0% | — | $204 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…DDT | |||
| SoFi | 2026-09-30 | 18.0% | $29 | $1.7K | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…OFI | ||
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 2026-09-30 | 18.0% | — | $496 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…LNY | ||
| Pure Storage | 2026-09-30 | 15.0% | — | $312 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…STG | ||
| Curtiss-Wright Corporation | 2026-09-30 | 14.0% | — | $77 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…-CW | ||
| Venture Global | 2026-09-30 | 12.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…-VG | ||
| BWX Technologies | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | — | $11 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…WXT | ||
| Snowflake | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | — | $14 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…NOW | ||
| Roblox | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | — | $6 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…BLX | ||
| Affirm Holdings | 2026-09-30 | 5.0% | — | $7 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…FRM | ||
| SpaceX | 2026-09-30 | 4.0% | — | $136 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…PCX | ||
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) | 2026-09-30 | 4.0% | — | $46 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…STR | ||
| Casey's General Stores | 2026-09-30 | 4.0% | — | $25 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…ASY | ||
| CoreWeave | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | — | $11 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…RWV | ||
| Talen Energy | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…TLN | ||
| Duolingo | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…UOL | ||
| Guidewire Software | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…WRE | ||
| Circle Internet Group | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…RCL | ||
| Toast | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…OST | ||
| Cloudflare | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…NET | ||
| Cerebras | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | — | $42 | A | KXSP500ADDQ-…BRS |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | S&P Global | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "S&P Global" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- S&P Global source of record venue-listed
- index administrator from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsp500addq-26sep30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsp500addq-26sep30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsp500addq-26sep30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5V26ZRYCT7",
"slug": "kxsp500addq-26sep30",
"question": "Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"s&p-500-additions",
"equity-index-composition",
"q3-2026",
"corporate-eligibility",
"market-structure"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 22,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5678,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "S&P Global",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "S&P Global",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "S&P Global",
"url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "index administrator",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}