SpaceX launches, full-year 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 120 | 2026-12-31 | 98.0% | $118 | $18K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…120 | ||
| ≥ 140 | 2026-12-31 | 75.0% | $969 | $23K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…140 | ||
| ≥ 160 | 2026-12-31 | 38.0% | $666 | $37K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…160 | ||
| ≥ 170 | 2026-12-31 | 28.0% | $216 | $12K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…170 | ||
| ≥ 180 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | $1.1K | $15K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…180 | ||
| ≥ 190 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $53 | $3.0K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…190 | ||
| ≥ 200 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $37 | $1.8K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…200 | ||
| ≥ 210 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $46 | $1.8K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…210 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Aviation Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Aviation Administration" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexcount-26b/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexcount-26b.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexcount-26b") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
"slug": "kxspacexcount-26b",
"question": "SpaceX launches, full-year 2026",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"spacex",
"launches",
"space-industry",
"quantitative",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 110795,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}