SpaceX launches, full-year 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 96.0% | $2 | $31K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…120 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 90.0% | $521 | $49K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…140 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 80.0% | $19 | $4.8K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…150 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 32.0% | $1.1K | $49K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…160 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 10.0% | $160 | $7.5K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…170 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 10.0% | $112 | $11K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…180 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 9.0% | $16 | $3.5K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…190 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 9.0% | $35 | $2.5K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…200 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2027-01-07 | 6.0% | $31 | $2.5K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…210 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | SpaceX | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "SpaceX" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexcount-26b/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexcount-26b |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexcount-26b") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QB08D1GQS3",
"slug": "kxspacexcount-26b",
"question": "SpaceX launches, full-year 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex-launches",
"space-industry",
"quantitative-prediction",
"2026-activity",
"commercial-spaceflight"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 160798,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 83,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FAA",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}