Launches will SpaceX have in 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-07 (15D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 98.0% | $830 | $38K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-10 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 99.0% | $864 | $40K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-11 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 95.0% | $10K | $92K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-12 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 70.0% | $5.1K | $69K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-13 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 3.0% | $803 | $4.3K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-14 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | $84 | $2.0K | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-15 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $2 | $533 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-16 | ||
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $0 | $309 | A | KXSPACEXCOUN…-18 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Aviation Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Aviation Administration" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Aviation Administration source of record venue-listed
- SpaceX venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexcount-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexcount-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexcount-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M7ZF3TFVP7",
"slug": "kxspacexcount-26jul",
"question": "Launches will SpaceX have in 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex-launches",
"space-industry",
"july-2026",
"quantitative-prediction",
"aerospace"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 246741,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"url": "https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/launches/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}