Will SpaceX conduct a 14th Starship launch? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-10 ]
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, | 2026-08-28 | 9.0% | $2 | $340 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…G21 | ||
| Sep 1, | 2026-09-08 | 26.0% | $576 | $1.8K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…P01 | ||
| Sep 18, | 2026-09-25 | 78.0% | $82 | $1.8K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…P18 | ||
| Oct 1, | 2026-10-08 | 91.0% | $296 | $4.2K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…T01 | ||
| Oct 16, | 2026-10-23 | 97.0% | $1 | $1.9K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…T16 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | SpaceX | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and before Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "SpaceX" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- SpaceX source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexstarship-14/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexstarship-14 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexstarship-14") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M056M2TKS7",
"slug": "kxspacexstarship-14",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct a 14th Starship launch?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"starship",
"launch-milestone",
"space-exploration",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9981,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}