Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 85.0% | $4 | $20K | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…FRE | ||
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 8.0% | — | $398 | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…HAD | ||
| Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 5.0% | — | $35 | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…KAT | ||
| Will Paulo Serra win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…SER | ||
| Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…FRA | ||
| Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXSPGOV-26OC…HIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO
If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO
For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements
Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority
Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction
In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails
The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first
Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline
If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspgov-26oct04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspgov-26oct04.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspgov-26oct04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q4TP116VW3",
"slug": "kxspgov-26oct04",
"question": "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2027-brazilian-elections",
"são-paulo-governor",
"brazilian-politics",
"regional-executive",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20834,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://international.tse.jus.br/en",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}