Will the S&P 500 move on the July FOMC meeting day? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (13D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0.25% | 2026-08-05 | 96.0% | — | $2.8K | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….25 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-08-05 | 72.0% | — | $891 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….50 | ||
| ≥ 0.75% | 2026-08-05 | 63.0% | $64 | $1.2K | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….75 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2026-08-05 | 48.0% | $240 | $2.4K | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….00 | ||
| ≥ 1.25% | 2026-08-05 | 25.0% | — | $391 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….25 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2026-08-05 | 20.0% | — | $104 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….50 | ||
| ≥ 1.75% | 2026-08-05 | 12.0% | — | $104 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….75 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2026-08-05 | 6.0% | $0 | $36 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….00 | ||
| ≥ 2.25% | 2026-08-05 | 7.0% | — | $36 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….25 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-08-05 | 4.0% | — | $3 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….50 | ||
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-08-05 | 3.0% | $0 | $18 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-08-05 | 2.0% | — | $27 | A | KXSPXFOMC-26….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the the absolute percentage change in the S&P 500 Index closing level for July 29, 2026 is at least 0.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The absolute percentage change will be calculated using the official S&P 500 closing level for July 29, 2026 and the official S&P 500 closing level for the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index refers to the S&P 500 price-return index, not the S&P 500 Total Return Index, S&P 500 futures, ETFs, or intraday values. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 close - previous trading day close| / previous trading day close × 100.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspxfomc-26jul29/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspxfomc-26jul29 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspxfomc-26jul29") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-369JGF7NK5",
"slug": "kxspxfomc-26jul29",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 move on the July FOMC meeting day?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fomc-announcement",
"equity-markets",
"intraday-volatility",
"monetary-policy",
"sp500"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7997,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}