Will at least one member of Starmer's cabinet leave their position before July? [ resolved 2026-07-08 ]
Will Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary before July 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $44 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…REE | ||
| David Lammy be out as Deputy PM | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $88 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…LAM | ||
| Jonathan Reynolds be out as Chief Whip | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $464 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…REY | ||
| Shabana Mahmood be out as Home Secretary | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $476 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…MAH | ||
| Pat McFadden be out as Work and Pensions Secretary | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $234 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…MCF | ||
| Ed Miliband be out as Energy Secretary | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $481 | A | KXSTARMERCAB…MIL | ||
| Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary | 2026-07-08 | 99.0% | — | $19K | A | KXSTARMERCAB…STR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | person | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "person" sources (12) · stated precedence rule
- person venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- official government records and registries source of record venue-listed
- the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- the New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| NO | Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will David Lammy be out as Deputy PM before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jonathan Reynolds be out as Chief Whip before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Shabana Mahmood be out as Home Secretary before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pat McFadden be out as Work and Pensions Secretary before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ed Miliband be out as Energy Secretary before July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxstarmercableave-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxstarmercableave-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxstarmercableave-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M5JX55LYT0",
"slug": "kxstarmercableave-26may",
"question": "Will at least one member of Starmer's cabinet leave their position before July?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"cabinet-turnover",
"starmer-government",
"2026",
"minister-resignation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20451,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "person",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government records and registries",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}