Will SpaceX conduct at least one Starship launch that reaches space in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $43 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…2.0 | ||
| < 1 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $35 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…6-2 | ||
| Exactly 3 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $100 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…3.0 | ||
| Exactly 4 | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $95 | $641 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…4.0 | ||
| Exactly 5 | 2027-01-01 | 54.0% | $21 | $3.9K | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…5.0 | ||
| Exactly 6 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $753 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…6.0 | ||
| Exactly 7 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $86 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…7.0 | ||
| Exactly 8 | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $15 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…8.0 | ||
| > 10 | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $21 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…6-9 | ||
| Exactly 9 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $2 | C | KXSTARSHIPSP…9.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | SpaceX | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "SpaceX" sources (1) · single authority
- SpaceX source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxstarshipspace-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxstarshipspace-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxstarshipspace-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5Y6P6RHZ94",
"slug": "kxstarshipspace-26",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one Starship launch that reaches space in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"starship",
"space-launches",
"2026",
"spaceflight"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5594,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spacex.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "SpaceX",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}