Will the US tariff rate on India be specified by July 1? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $42 | $1.1K | A | KXTARIFFRATE…1-5 | ||
| 20% | 2026-07-01 | 100.0% | $10 | $4.7K | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-14 | ||
| 30% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $55 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-24 | ||
| 40% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $51 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-34 | ||
| 50% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $101 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-44 | ||
| 60% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $49 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-55 | ||
| ≥ 60% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $4 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-30 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the general import tariff rate on imports from India into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.
Examples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):
India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%
China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%
European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)
Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (16) · single authority
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- the President of the United States source of record venue-listed
- the United States Congress venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the tariff rate on India imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (7 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtariffrateindia-26jul01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtariffrateindia-26jul01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtariffrateindia-26jul01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FC5Z7GXWS9",
"slug": "kxtariffrateindia-26jul01",
"question": "Will the US tariff rate on India be specified by July 1?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-tariffs",
"india-trade",
"trump-administration",
"2026",
"trade-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6078,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the President of the United States",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the President of the United States",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}