Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026? [ resolves 2026-07-01 (28D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10% | 2026-07-01 | 19.0% | $101 | $3.1K | A | KXTARIFFRATE…1-5 | ||
| 20% | 2026-07-01 | 74.0% | $16 | $25K | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-14 | ||
| 30% | 2026-07-01 | 7.8% | — | $2.8K | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-24 | ||
| 40% | 2026-07-01 | 2.5% | — | $309 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-34 | ||
| 50% | 2026-07-01 | 1.0% | — | $49 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-44 | ||
| 60% | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $3 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-55 | ||
| ≥ 60% | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $2 | A | KXTARIFFRATE…-30 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.
Examples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):
India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%
China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%
European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)
Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtariffrateprc-26jul01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtariffrateprc-26jul01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0F3FPFL7B8",
"slug": "kxtariffrateprc-26jul01",
"question": "Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-tariffs",
"china-trade",
"2026",
"economic-policy",
"trade-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30704,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}