Temperature in Chicago, August 4, 2026 at 2 PM EDT [ resolves 2026-08-11 (7D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 77.99 | 2026-08-11 | 97.0% | $1 | $1 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 78.99 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $74 | $74 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 79.99 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $2.1K | $2.1K | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 80.99 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $2.8K | $2.8K | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 81.99 | 2026-08-11 | 99.0% | $248 | $326 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 82.99 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $9 | $10 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 83.99 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $14 | $14 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 84.99 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $5 | $5 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 85.99 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $3 | $3 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 | ||
| > 86.99 | 2026-08-11 | 1.0% | $1 | $1 | A | KXTEMPCHIH-2….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Weather Company | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXTEMPCHIH, notice id NHIGHD-bulk-2026-06-12):
**Important information:** Market settlement will process approximately 25–35 minutes after closing to ensure accurate data retrieval from our official source. For updates and historical market data, please visit https://weather.com/kalshi.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the temperature recorded at Chicago, IL for Aug 4, 2026 2 PM EDT as reported by The Weather Company (for coordinates KORD), is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
The official, final value for this market is the temperature reported by the The Weather Company, not any other weather service.
NWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, etc. may be useful references, but are not authoritative for resolution.
Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.
Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Weather Company" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- The Weather Company source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtempchih-26aug0414/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtempchih-26aug0414 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtempchih-26aug0414") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6NB5ZKB019",
"slug": "kxtempchih-26aug0414",
"question": "Temperature in Chicago, August 4, 2026 at 2 PM EDT",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"chicago-weather",
"temperature-prediction",
"summer-2026",
"weather-binary",
"climate-observation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5338,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Weather Company",
"resolution_source_url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "The Weather Company",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Weather Company",
"url": "https://weather.com/kalshi",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}