Who will win the next Gambian presidential election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Barrow · Who will win the next Gambian presidential election? | 2026-12-31 | 95.6% | $1 | $6.0K | B | KXTHEGAMBIAP…BAR | ||
| Ousainou Darboe · Who will win the next Gambian presidential election? | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | — | $1.2K | B | KXTHEGAMBIAP…DAR | ||
| Essa Faal · Who will win the next Gambian presidential election? | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $0 | B | KXTHEGAMBIAP…FAA | ||
| Mama Kandeh · Who will win the next Gambian presidential election? | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $0 | B | KXTHEGAMBIAP…KAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Adama Barrow, then the market resolves to Yes.
For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxthegambiapres-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxthegambiapres-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxthegambiapres-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QWL4XW2R90",
"slug": "kxthegambiapres-26",
"question": "Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"gambian-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2027",
"west-africa",
"political-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7270,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}