Will someone launch a token this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 14 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Arc	2027-01-01	47.0%	$3	$3.3K	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ARC`
Exponent	2027-01-01	31.0%	—	$1.1K	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…XPO`
Abstract	2027-01-01	24.0%	—	$1.1K	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…BST`
CME Group	2027-01-01	19.0%	—	$353	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…CME`
Ostium	2027-01-01	16.0%	—	$722	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…STI`
Base	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$774	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ASE`
Fomo	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$651	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…OMO`
MetaMask	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$538	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ETA`
OpenSea	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$392	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…PEN`
Rabby	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$254	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ABB`
Unit	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$138	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…NIT`
Tempo	2027-01-01	8.0%	—	$152	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…MPO`
Felix	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$214	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ELI`
Phantom	2027-01-01	4.0%	—	$105	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…HAN`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Arbiscan	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 14 markets · share this text

If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Arbiscan"

sources (26)

Arbiscan venue-listed Axios venue-listed Base Explorer venue-listed Binance Chain Explorer venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed Coinbase venue-listed CoinDesk venue-listed CoinGecko venue-listed CoinMarketCap venue-listed CoinTelegraph venue-listed Decrypt venue-listed DeFi Llama venue-listed Etherscan venue-listed Kraken venue-listed major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance venue-listed official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks venue-listed OKX venue-listed Polygonscan venue-listed project venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Solscan venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Block venue-listed The Information venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-10-09T14:56:34+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token-launch odds carry a premium across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 17%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 17%, Polymarket at 11%, a 6pp gap on a low-probability claim.
- Kalshi sits higher; liquidity is thin on Kalshi ($3.4K cumulative) vs. deep on Polymarket ($176K).
- Polymarket's larger crowd likely reflects a more representative sample, the Kalshi premium may reflect a small-market pricing artifact rather than genuine divergence of informed views.
- Resolution: token must publicly launch on-chain before Jan 1, 2027.
2026-10-09T07:49:48+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token-before-2027 odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 20%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 20%, Polymarket at 8%, a 12pp spread on the same claim.
- Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket holds the lower price against a far deeper liquidity pool.
- Thin Kalshi book may reflect a small cluster of informed or speculative positions unanchored by volume; Polymarket's deeper market is the stronger reference price.
- Resolution: any confirmed Arc token public launch or issuance announcement before Jan 1, 2027 likely settles YES.
2026-10-07T15:03:14+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch carries a premium on the low-volume desk Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 16%
- Kalshi prices the Arc token launch at 16%, Polymarket at 11%, a 5pp gap ahead of the year-end deadline.
- Kalshi shows ~$3K in cumulative volume against Polymarket's ~$176K, a roughly 56x liquidity gap.
- Polymarket's deeper book and tighter crowd suggest the 11% handle is more market-tested than Kalshi's 16%.
- Resolution requires Arc to publicly launch a token before Jan 1, 2027, a binary, date-gated event.
2026-10-07T07:49:04+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 20%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 20%, Polymarket at 11%, a 9pp gap with under three months to resolution.
- Kalshi is the higher venue; liquidity runs thin at $3,949 cumulative vs Polymarket's $176,255.
- Thin Kalshi volume likely explains the premium, shallow book, fewer participants anchoring the price toward the better-informed crowd on the larger venue.
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027; any soft launch or testnet status may complicate adjudication.
2026-10-05T16:45:44+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token-before-2027 odds run wide across venues Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 19%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 19%, Polymarket at 10%, a 9pp spread
- Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Kalshi cumulative volume is thin vs Polymarket's much deeper pool
- Polymarket's larger market likely reflects more informed consensus; Kalshi's premium may stem from low liquidity and weaker price discovery
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtokenlaunch-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "question": "Will someone launch a token this year?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-tokens",
    "token-launch",
    "2026",
    "corporate-action",
    "web3-adoption"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9744,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Arbiscan",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Arbiscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Base Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance Chain Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Coinbase",
      "url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinGecko",
      "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinMarketCap",
      "url": "https://coinmarketcap.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinTelegraph",
      "url": "https://bitchat.free/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Decrypt",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "DeFi Llama",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Etherscan",
      "url": "https://counterparty.io/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kraken",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance",
      "url": "http://www.binance.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "OKX",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Polygonscan",
      "url": "https://polygon.technology/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "project",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Solscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Block",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →