Will someone launch a token this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arc | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | $3 | $3.3K | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…ARC | ||
| Exponent | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…XPO | ||
| Abstract | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…BST | ||
| CME Group | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $353 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…CME | ||
| Ostium | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $722 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…STI | ||
| Base | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $774 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…ASE | ||
| Fomo | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $651 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…OMO | ||
| MetaMask | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $538 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…ETA | ||
| OpenSea | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $392 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…PEN | ||
| Rabby | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $254 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…ABB | ||
| Unit | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $138 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…NIT | ||
| Tempo | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $152 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…MPO | ||
| Felix | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $214 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…ELI | ||
| Phantom | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $105 | C | KXTOKENLAUNC…HAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Arbiscan | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Arbiscan" sources (26)
Arbiscan venue-listed Axios venue-listed Base Explorer venue-listed Binance Chain Explorer venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed Coinbase venue-listed CoinDesk venue-listed CoinGecko venue-listed CoinMarketCap venue-listed CoinTelegraph venue-listed Decrypt venue-listed DeFi Llama venue-listed Etherscan venue-listed Kraken venue-listed major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance venue-listed official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks venue-listed OKX venue-listed Polygonscan venue-listed project venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Solscan venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Block venue-listed The Information venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
recent wire items
- Exponent token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 21%
- Kalshi prices the launch at 21%, Polymarket at 11%, a 10pp gap with under two months to resolution.
- Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity by a wide margin versus Kalshi's thin book.
- Thin Kalshi volume suggests a small number of trades may be anchoring the higher price; Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader consensus.
- Resolution hinges on a verifiable public token launch by Exponent before Jan 1, 2027.
- Exponent token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 25%
- Kalshi prices 25%, Polymarket 11%, a 14pp gap with under two months to resolution.
- Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at $360K vs Kalshi's $2.4K.
- Thin Kalshi volume may leave its price vulnerable to noise; Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader consensus.
- Resolves YES if Exponent publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027.
- Arc token launch carries a wide premium on one venue Polymarket 4% vs Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi at 15%, Polymarket at 4%, an 11pp spread with resolution due Jan 1, 2027.
- Kalshi prices higher; Polymarket holds $204K in cumulative volume against Kalshi's $3.5K.
- Severe liquidity disparity points to Polymarket as the reference price; Kalshi's reading may reflect a small, less-informed participant pool.
- Resolves YES only on a confirmed Arc token launch before the year-end deadline.
- Exponent token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 22%
- Kalshi prices Exponent token launch at 22%, Polymarket at 11%, an 11pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket carries far deeper liquidity at $360K cumulative vs $2K on Kalshi
- Thin Kalshi volume likely inflates its price; Polymarket's $360K pool is the more credible signal here
- Resolves YES if Exponent publicly launches a token before January 1, 2027
- Arc token launch prices far apart on the major prediction desks Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 14%
- Kalshi sits at 14% for an Arc token launch; Polymarket prices the same claim at 5%, a 9pp spread
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds $197K in cumulative volume against Kalshi's $3K
- Kalshi's thin book makes its 14% easily distorted; Polymarket's deeper pool points to a low-probability outcome
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before January 1, 2027
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtokenlaunch-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
"slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
"question": "Will someone launch a token this year?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"crypto-tokens",
"token-launch",
"2026",
"corporate-action",
"web3-adoption"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9744,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Arbiscan",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Arbiscan",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Base Explorer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Binance Chain Explorer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Coinbase",
"url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinDesk",
"url": "https://www.coindesk.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinGecko",
"url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinMarketCap",
"url": "https://coinmarketcap.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CoinTelegraph",
"url": "https://bitchat.free/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Decrypt",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "DeFi Llama",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Etherscan",
"url": "https://counterparty.io/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Kraken",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance",
"url": "http://www.binance.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "OKX",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Polygonscan",
"url": "https://polygon.technology/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "project",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Solscan",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Block",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}